WBB Preview: Aggies Hope For First Road Win Against Omaha

Utah State is looking for its second win of the season and its first away from home on Tuesday evening, and has a good chance to do so against a struggling Omaha team. Nothing is a given on the road, though, especially for groups as young as Utah State's.

The Mavericks have yet to notch a Division I win, with their only victory coming in the form of a 108-40 beatdown of NAIA College of Saint Mary on Nov. 7. This game could land as a high-scoring affair, more because of the defenses involved than the offenses. That's not to say these offenses aren't capable – though they did not overlap, Omaha head coach Carrie Banks and Utah State head coach Wes Brooks are both products of Kevin McGuff's Ohio State coaching tree, and share some schematic approaches to the game, especially on the offensive end. But, neither defense has been overly impressive. That's particularly true of Omaha, which touts one of the nation's least effective defenses.

On the other end of the floor, the Mavericks do have a few players capable of scoring, but they haven’t put it all together quite yet. Omaha is led by a pair of double-digit scorers in Grace Cave and Harriet Ford. The former is leading the offense in scoring while the former isn't too far behind, pitching in 10.2 points per game and leading the team in rebounds with 9.6 a night.

Utah State will be looking to play the way it did in the first half and final quarter against Colorado, while working hard to avoid another brutal letdown like the 27-3 third frame in that outing. If the Aggies can speed up the game and force some mistakes from Omaha, they should be in a good position to play their game – the Mavericks don't defend the three-point line well and have had considerable trouble with turnovers. Still, Utah State hasn’t proven much this season and is still looking to put together its first complete game.

Players To Know

Grace Cave: Cave is solid across the board. She's a two-way player posting a team-high in both points and steals, adding versatility on both ends of the court and opening up the floor for the Mavericks. As a scorer, she’s capable at all three levels, though she doesn’t utilize the three-point shot too often.

The Nebraska native is a senior and an established veteran leader for Omaha. She was named to the preseason All-Summit League second-team after earning an honorable mention nod last season, leading the team in points, assists and blocks while averaging 12.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.4 blocks per game.

This season, she is just as well-rounded, but with a slight uptick in her already impressive scoring numbers. She has scored in double digits in four of Omaha's five games, and dropped back-to-back 20-point games against Western Illinois and Kansas. 

She’s good for anywhere between one and two three-pointers a game, but doesn’t take a lot of misses to get there. She launches outside shots deliberately and is a career 32.4 percent three-point shooter, but she does most of her damage inside the arc. Cave is a crafty scorer who can get to the basket and the free-throw line without much trouble, and she has the ball-handling skills to initiate the offense as needed. Losing track of her is a quick way to let the Mavericks get on a roll, so the Aggies will need their guards to be on point in their defensive efforts. This season, she's averaging 14.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.6 steals per game, also serving as a pesky perimeter defender likely to match up with Utah State's Cheyenne Stubbs.

Harriet Ford: The freshman center from Australia is averaging nearly a double-double with 10.2 points, 9.6 rebounds and 1.0 assists per game. She already has two double-doubles this season – a 20-point, 15-rebound performance against the College of Saint Mary and an 18-point, 13-rebound outing against Western Illinois in the very next game.

Outside of those two dominant performances, she’s been a bit more muted, scoring just four, three and six points. While she’s still looking to establish consistency, her top-end skills are certainly there, and she has already proven that she can be a dangerous player on the interior.

At 6-3, her height could pose a problem for the Aggies in the post. Utah State has height from Gracie Johnson, Allyzee Verdan and Sophie Sene, who all stand taller than 6-0, but the most reliable minutes have come from Jamisyn Heaton, who checks in at just 5-10 and will have a size disadvantage against Ford. That's not new for her, though. Heaton is a veteran and has emerged as a leader on this Aggie team, despite frequently matching up with larger centers in the post.

The Aggies would do well to hold her to one of her low-scoring games and keep her off the glass, because if Ford gets loose, the Mavericks become a pretty tough team to handle. She does have some fouling issues, though (3.2 PF per game), which could be an avenue for Utah State to attack.

Cora Olsen: Cora Olsen, a sophomore from Omaha, is the third-leading scorer on this team and has been impressive in her first season as a full-time starter. She is averaging 8.6 points on the season, but has really picked it up after her first two games and is averaging 12 points in her last three outings. She scored 12 points against Western Illinois, 15 points against Kansas, and is coming off a nine-point performance against Wisconsin. She has decent size on the wing (5-9) and is grabbing 2.8 rebounds per game, but Olsen isn’t much of a threat to steal the ball or block shots in the post. She has only recorded four steals and hasn’t blocked a shot this year.

What makes her dangerous is her scoring ability. She has been willing to take the deep shot and hit 2 of 2 against Western Illinois, but prefers to score inside or at the line. She's getting to the stripe more than anyone on the roster and is reliable when she gets there with an 86.7 percent hit rate. Olsen is also a terrific decoy to pull the defense’s attention away from other players, opening up the floor for her teammates and frequently pushing opposing players into early foul trouble.

The Aggies will need to avoid that pitfall, but defending her without fouling is not an easy thing to do. Utah State does have plenty of players to throw at her, but it’s still better to keep her off the line. Mia Tarver, Taliyah Logwood, Elise Livingston, and even Heaton will likely take turns guarding her.

Stats To Know

Defensive Efficiency: Omaha’s defense has not been good this year – the Mavericks are giving up 79.8 points per game. Utah State is slightly better there, giving up 76.0 points per game, but this is not exactly a meeting of elite stop units.

Omaha’s opponents are shooting 50.6 percent from the field, 43.1 percent from three and earning 1.2 points per scoring attempt. There's plenty to blame for those struggles, but it starts on the glass, where the Mavericks are grabbing just 20.3 defensive rebounds per game with a defensive rebound rate of 66.4 percent, leaving plenty of room for the Aggie frontcourt to grab boards and putbacks. 

Free-Throw Rate: Another telling statistic is that the Mavericks are the worst shot-blocking team in the country. They're averaging 0.3 blocks per game for a block rate of 0.6 percent, both of which are dead last nationally. Also contributing to the poor defense is the team’s foul rate – the Mavericks are averaging 20.3 fouls per game and a foul rate of 24.4 percent, worth nearly 17 free throws per game for their opponents.

This is something the Aggies will look to exploit, as they have been exceptional at getting to the line. The Aggies are taking 21 free throws a game and have a free throw rate of 23.7 percent, meaning nearly a quarter of all their two-point attempts end with a trip to the stripe.